Ron Paul - Poll Analysis - other candidates too

Taking a second look at the Iowa result and the Iowa polls, I think Ron Paul may actually bag third in New Hampshire. See the pdf file reviewing poll numbers in both states:
ron-paul-polls.pdf

These numbers are from the Wikipedia page on Republican state polls.

In the Iowa caucus, Ron Paul got 10%. This was equal to his maximum poll result (Zogby, the day before the caucus). It was also about 40% above his average poll result and 2.5 times his minimum result.

In New Hampshire his maximum poll result (on 1/4/08) is 14. His average poll result is 8. The minimum is 6, though that is from the overtly biased Fox News, which refused to include Ron Paul in their debate even though he is polling far higher than Fred Thompson in New Hampshire -- in their own poll no less.

Ron Paul just might pull that 14% in New Hampshire. This would put him roughly in a tie with Mike Huckabee for third. It should be noted, however, that Huckabee did better than his maximum poll result in Iowa. An explanation for that is the high evangelical turnout, which is unlikely to happen in NH.

By contrast, the explanation for Ron Paul's poll numbers being low (that his voters often have cell phones and are not on pollster lists) would be repeated across states. Also, Ron Paul may get a bump from his appearance on Jay Leno last night, just as Huckabee did in Iowa.

Regarding the other candidates in Iowa, Rudy Giuliani's actual result equalled his minimum poll number and was well below his average. Mitt Romney polled near his minimum and below his average. Fred Thompson and John McCain both outperformed their average poll numbers.

Also a general note -- candidates who polled high had more consistent poll numbers, which is to be expected.